A new way to judge how the economy performs in booms and busts‎

When the economy grows or shrinks, we often focus on how long the phase lasts or how deep it goes. A new paper asks a sharper question: How does actual growth compare with steady, quarter-by-quarter growth over the same period? The authors, Viv Hall (Victoria University of Wellington), John McDermott (Motu Research) and Peter Thomson (Statistics Research Associates), develop three new measures that track the shape of each business cycle phase.